Флетовые валютные пары Форекс

30.12.2017
Автор: AcademyFX
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флетовые пары

Разделение на трендовые и флетовые валютные пары вряд ли будет корректным, потому что не существует инструмента, который постоянно находится в тренде или в боковике.

Под флетовыми, тем не менее, можно понимать те торговые инструменты, которые ходят в широких горизонтальных или сдвигающихся каналах Форекс. Считается, что во флете цена проводит две трети всего времени и только третью часть в ярко выраженном тренде.

Область бокового движения цены

На каком таймфрейме определять характер движения цены, значения не имеет. И тренд и флэт одного и того же инструмента изменят лишь свои абсолютные значения, но не временные или ценовые пропорции. Рассмотрим пример. Одна из флетовых пар Форекс EUR/GBP на недельном графике сейчас явно находится в боковом коридоре (голубой прямоугольник) после хорошего восходящего движения.

флетовые валютные пары

Совершенно аналогично выглядит флет на рисунке ниже на том же самом инструменте, но уже на часовом графике. После нисходящего тренда пара входит во флет (белый прямоугольник).

самая флетовая валютная пара

Пропорции одинаковые, а временные и ценовые изменения разные. В первом случае, ширина флета составляет без малого 900 пунктов, во втором – около 80. Соответственно, разнятся и временные промежутки. Для тех, кто торгует внутри дня и среднесрок, недельный флет фактически становится чередой трендов.

Таким образом, более правильным будет говорить не о флетовых валютных парах, а об области флета на графике. Это не значит, что все инструменты проводят в боковике абсолютно одинаковое количество времени, поэтому одни из них принято считать более флетовыми, а другие трендовыми.

Самые флетовые пары

Относительно больше времени во флете проводят кроссовые инструменты, которые котируются без доллара. Из них выделяются те, что в паре с долларом идут в одном направлении. Например, австралиец и новозеландец по отношению к доллару идут обычно более-менее одинаково – их графики очень похожи, поэтому AUD/NZD часто называют самой флетовой валютной парой. К флетовым также относят пары EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, CAD/CHF, GBP/JPY и многие другие.

самые флетовые пары 

Флетовая пара и низковолатильная пара – это не синонимы!

Часто встречающаяся ошибка, когда флетовые пары на Форекс называют низковолатильными и наоборот. Это далеко не одно и то же. Волатильность – это изменение цены в единицу времени. Инструмент может быть высоковолатильным, при этом торговаться во флете. То есть скорость изменения цены высокая, но цена двигается в рамках коридора.

Лучше всего иллюстрирует вышесказанное индикатор ATR, который установлен в МетаТрейдере по умолчанию. На рисунке ниже одна из самых флетовых валютных пар AUD/NZD. Видно, что инструмент ходит в явно выраженных коридорах с четкими границами, от которых достаточно успешно можно торговать на отбой. В рамках каналов волатильность пары сильно разнится, что отражено в окне индикатора Форекс.

флетовые пары форекс

Обычно такие кросс-пары имеют гораздо больший спред, чем пары с котировкой к доллару, что отпугивает трейдеров. На инструменте AUD/NZD в момент написания статьи спред составлял 24 пункта по четырехзнаку, что довольно много, если учесть, что в самых популярных парах он не превышает 3 пункта. Однако и вероятность сделать верный прогноз высока.

Как определить начало флета?

Чаще мы говорим о флетовой валютной паре тогда, когда инструмент входит в какой-то горизонтальный или сдвигающийся коридор. К сожалению, предсказать заранее, когда это произойдет, невозможно. Однако для каждого инструмента есть некоторые свои закономерности. Например, если пара AUD/NZD два дня подряд проходила в день гораздо больше, чем среднедневной диапазон (по АТР), то в следующие дни с большой долей вероятности можно ждать торгового коридора размером от 38,2% до 50% от всего пройденного парой пути. То же верно для любых других таймфреймов.

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Ян Сикорский, трейдер-аналитик с опытом более 7 лет info-icon
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Ян Сикорский, трейдер-аналитик с опытом более 7 лет info-icon
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Ян Сикорский, трейдер-аналитик с опытом более 7 лет info-icon
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Ян Сикорский, трейдер-аналитик с опытом более 7 лет info-icon
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