Конвергенция Форекс

02.01.2017
Автор: AcademyFX
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Конвергенция Форекс

Трейдеры Академии Форекс часто используют на вебинарах или в обучающих статьях такое понятие как конвергенция Форекс. Важно понимать, о чем идет речь. Если перед Вами стоит задача научиться прибыльной торговле на Форекс, тогда нужно различать, что такое конвергенция и дивергенция, как они выглядят на торговом графике и что делать, если наблюдается конвергенция.

Что такое конвергенция на Форекс?

Конвергенцией называют процесс, когда сходятся две стороны, каждая из которых имеют одинаковые признаки. Иными совами, конвергенция Форекс – полная противоположность дивергенции.

Если на графике Форекс образовалась конвергенция (например, при нисходящем тренде), а индикатор покажет противоположную тенденцию (восходящую). Трендовые линии индикатора и графика будут как будто сближаться.

На графике конвергенция Форекс выглядит так:

конвергенция форекс

Рисунок 1. Конвергенция Форекс.

Для успешной торговли трейдеру обязательно нужно уметь отличить дивергенцию от конвергенции. Ведь основная цель любого трейдера Форекс – это выгодно войти в рынок и вовремя выйти из него, получив при этом какую-то прибыль. Сигналы, полученные от конвергенции и дивергенции очень точны, и они часто применяются трейдерами во время технического анализа Форекс.

Практически каждый индикатор Форекс будет следовать за ценой той или иной валютной пары. Но проблема основной массы индикаторов кроется в запаздывании выдачи сигналов. Однако есть и такие, которые могут идти на опережение цены.

Лучше всего дивергенцию можно увидеть, установив в торговый терминал такие индикаторы:

Когда индикатор и график цены показывают разные направления, тогда возникает конвергенция и дивергенция.

Важно: если в терминале наблюдается конвергенция форекс, значит, стоит приготовиться открывать ордера Форекс на покупку.

Запомните: если конвергенция предполагает схождение линий, то дивергенция наоборот – расхождение линий. Эти понятия не нужно путать.

Конвергенция форекс и дивергенция просто так на графике не возникают. Они появляются только в момент, когда цена и индикатор показывают различные направления по отношению друг к другу. Например, график цены достиг очередного пика, но индикатор наоборот показывает нисходящее движение.

Чтобы понять, чем же всё-таки отличаются конвергенция от дивергенции, достаточно взглянуть на рисунок 2.

виды конвергенции форекс

Рисунок 2. Конвергенция и дивергенция схематично.

Чем сильнее эта разница (расхождение направления между индикатором и ценой), тем быстрее может смениться тренд или вовсе произойти его разворот.

Как распознать конвергенцию на графике?

  1. Итак, открываем график любой валютной пары. Пусть это будет пара EUR/USD.
  2. Таймфрейм, на котором будем определять конвергенцию возьмем Н4.
  3. Добавим индикатор MACD со стандартными настройками. Он лучше всего показывает конвергенцию и дивергенцию.
  4. Затем ищем несоответствие японских свечей с направлением индикатора MACD.
  5. Проводим вертикальные линии от минимумов, которые отображает индикатор MACD.

конвергенция

Рисунок 3. Конвергенция Форекс на EUR/USD (пример).

Далее рисуем трендовые линии, указывающие на конвергенцию.

конвергенция

Рисунок 4. Конвергенция Форекс на EUR/USD (пример с трендовыми линиями).

Виды конвергенции

Не знаете, какие виды конвергенции форекс существуют? Они бывают двух видов: бычья и медвежья.

Медвежья конвергенция

Когда на рынке наблюдается медвежья конвергенция Форекс, стоит ожидать завершения коррекции и быть готовым встретить медвежий тренд.

На графике она выглядит так:

конвергенция медвежья

Рисунок 5. Медвежья конвергенция.

Увидеть медвежью конвергенцию достаточно просто: когда нижний индикатор, в нашем случае MACD, показывает первое низкое, а второе высокое значение, а цена на графике более низкий пик, значит, происходит перекупленность и, скорее всего, завершение коррекционного движения.

На пробитии дневного уровня, с которого и началась коррекция, можно смело продавать. Stop Loss лучше установить на максимуме ценового отката. Какие ставить цели, каждый трейдер выбирает сам. Но следует обращать внимания на пивот уровни.

Бычья конвергенция

Когда на рынке происходит бычья конвергенция форекс, график показывает преобладающий бычий тренд при коррекционном движении.

На графике она выглядит так:

конвергенция бычья

Рисунок 6. Бычья конвергенция.

Этот вид конвергенции Форекс используется с противоположными условиями, которые выполняются для медвежьей. При повышающем тренде цена должна показывать более высокие минимумы, индикатор покажет нисходящий предыдущий откат. Это говорит о перепроданности во время наблюдаемого отката. Если такое произошло на рынке, можно рассматривать моменты входа в покупку.

Приказ Stop Loss лучше установить чуть ниже минимума ценового отката.

Заключение

Итак, мы рассмотрели понятие конвергенции, а также узнали виды конвергенции Форекс и чего следует ожидать от рынка при возникновении этой модели. Помимо этого научились распознавать их на графике.

Конвергенция и дивергенция – достаточно мощный сигнал на Форекс. Эти модели отрабатываются в 97% случаев. Оптимальным таймфреймом, на котором его стоит использовать, считается Н4 и D1, так как на них меньше всего происходить рыночного шума. Хотя некоторые трейдеры не боятся применять её на H1 и ниже.

Сделки открывать следует лишь тогда, когда индикатор MACD покажет сигнал, который будет отвечать всем условиям, отвечающим конвергенции или дивергенции. Когда возникнет конвергенция Форекс или дивергенция, некоторые участники рынка обязательно распознают в нём эту ситуацию, которая принесет им прибыль. Правильным будет совмещение сигналов, полученных от индикаторов с паттернами Price Action, фигурами поглощения, пивот уровнями. Тем самым трейдер убережет себя от ошибки неправильного входа в рынок.

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